Advice and Insights - Archive

Gold prices are high. In fact, they're at record heights -- and the question is, where will gold go from here? Well, to put it simply, gold will continue moving higher for the near term. While there will be pullbacks, they represent buying opportunities rather than the end of the gold bull market. A combination of strong demand from China and continued weakness in the dollar will continue to drive commodity prices higher -- especially gold.

We've seen Brazil in the headlines quite often lately -- from winning the 2016 Olympics to the most recent blackouts. In general, though, investor confidence in Brazil's economy and outlook is rising as we've continued to receive good economic news from the country. A boost in the jobs numbers, increasing domestic demand and the necessity of improving the country's infrastructure before Brazil hosts the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games will increasingly benefit my two Asia Edge plays on the coming growth and build-out of Brazil.

China's vehicle sales have surpassed the 10-million barrier -- consolidating their position as the number-one auto market in the world. As a result, investors are flocking to the sector. In fact, I know investors who purchased Boyd Gaming Corporation (NYSE: BYD) -- thinking they were buying the Chinese automaker that Warren Buffett made famous: BYD Company! But what all these investors are missing is that domestic Chinese automakers aren't the best way to play this opportunity.

China has created some 7.6 million new jobs in the first eight months of this year -- putting the country fully on-track to surpass their full-year employment target! On the flip side, the U.S. has lost some 7.3 million jobs since the recession began. So, though the U.S. employment data isn't currently weighing too heavily on the market, the long-term effects will be very damaging. For now, our best investment bet is in China, taking advantage of their dramatic growth and speedy economic recovery.

The Chinese government's goal is to provide basic universal healthcare for its entire population -- all 1.3 billion -- by 2020. As a result, the market value of China's pharmaceutical market is expected to jump to about $120 billion by 2020. So to take advantage of this dominant and growing market trend, an excellent trade right now is the leading supplier of traditional Chinese medicine. Shares recently pulled back, making now a perfect time to load up before the next leg up!

Hot money has been flowing into ETFs like never before. Investors are realizing that they don't have much exposure to emerging markets and are moving money like crazy to make up for it. So what emerging market ETFs are performing well this yet? Well, there are several -- In fact, I recommend two of these ETFs in my China Strategy service.

Because of China's economic strength this year, the Shanghai A-Share Index in China is up a whopping 71% year-to-date. Compare that to the 15% gain in the S&P 500 and the 11% gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and it's not hard to see why China is offering a better investment opportunity right now. China presents a multitude of opportunities for investors seeking diversification and growth. And this list of 10 reasons highlight why I believe that our best opportunities right now are in China.

Recent developments in India have led me to reevaluate my opinion of investments in the country -- and I'm excited to finally have this quickly-growing nation as an investable opportunity. In fact, I'm already seeing opportunity in an Indian company that is benefiting from the vibrant growth of the Indian economy in general, and particularly the rise of the Indian consumer class.

China's third-quarter GDP results were announced today and showed that the Chinese recovery is moving along at record speeds. China's GDP rose 8.9% in the third quarter compared to last year. That is up from 7.9% for the second quarter and 7.1% for the first half of the year. So China's economy is currently outperforming all other countries in the world, so we can expect more positive news from the country in the weeks and months ahead. And, as you might have guessed that bodes particularly well for investors.

Despite the great strides that China has undertaken to become an economic superpower, there are some investors who remain unsure if China is the "real deal" because of the country's history of socialism and authoritarian government. However, the Chinese system known as "socialism with Chinese characteristics" has become more capitalistic than almost all other major economies. With no capital gains tax, property tax or tax on real estate investment gains, China is actually more investor and capital friendly than the U.S.

As one of the hottest trends in China, we took full advantage with our trade in this Chinese online game developer. It also provided us a way to profit from the booming IPO market in China. However, we took profits in the company after it couldn't reach the same rate of growth. Additionally, new regulation from Chinese authorities are putting too much uncertainty in the future of online gaming in China -- banning foreign investment, which is a negative even for domestic online game operators.

Today is World Food Day -- an opportunity to focus on wordwide hunger. China, the world's most populous country, is in the limelight -- but what many don't know is how far the country has come. 30 years ago, China depended on world aid to feed many of its citizens, while today China is actually sending food aid to many developing countries. And the government in China is very aware there are still many improvements to be made to the country's agricultural infrastructure. So the government has banned chemical-based fertilizers, which are hard on farmland, and is moving to organic fertilizers as a part of the nation's green revolution.

As China's standard of living continues to rise for much of its population, one area the government is especially focused on improving is healthcare. So let's take a look at how China has improved over the last 60 years -- and where they're headed for the future. Additionally, we've loaded the China Strategy portfolio with plays on China's push for better healthcare, so we'll go over three opportunities that I'm expecting to especially benefit from the healthcare initiatives that China has undertaken.

South Korea is the first East Asian economy outside of China to recover from the global recession. And on most recent trip to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, I saw many signs of the China spillover effect pulling many countries in the region out of the global economic slowdown. In the case of South Korea, the country just saw its economy expand at the fastest pace in six years -- which means it's time to take a closer look.

China is the highest contributing country to the world's economic growth -- in fact, China makes up nearly 20% of the total world economic growth. That's a massive change from the paltry 2% it made up just 30 years ago. With such an extraordinary pace, it's not hard to see why China is rapidly expanding its influence on the world. Additionally, China is on track to become the world's second-largest economy by next year.

Brazil's economy is beginning to emerge from its recession -- and I was pleasantly surprised by their many improving economic numbers. As more emerging economies join China in a return to growth, we'll have more trading opportunities around the world. The bettering economic numbers, along with Brazil leading Latin America out of the global crisis, definitely helped Brazil with their successful 2016 Olympic bid today. This will mark the first time the Olympic Games will be held in South America.

Festivities for China's National Day were kicked off with a bang -- the Chinese government went all out to make this year's celebration of the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China the biggest and best ever seen in China. And they received overwhelming support, with over one million volunteering to help out with security and the parade. The Chinese have a lot to celebrate -- both their hard-won peace from civil war 60 years ago, as well as the modernization of China today.

So far, China's insurance market has followed the footsteps of the U.S. insurance industry -- and where the U.S. was 20 to 30 years ago, China is beginning right now! As a result, we're presented with a perfect opportunity to invest in a cash-rich brokerage service that is poised to use its leading position to capitalize on the major consolidation I expect the industry to soon face.

The relationship between Australia and China can seem strained, but I have no doubts that the trade between the two countries will only grow in importance in the future. So, I'd like to discuss with you some of the reasons behind the Australia/China tension, as well as exciting investment opportunities there and why I'm bullish on each country for the next decade.

We've often talked about how China's $586 billion stimulus package was vital to the country's quick recovery from the global slowdown -- and it also primarily benefited Chinese state-owned enterprises. But now the Chinese government is turning its attention to the country's small- and medium-enterprises. I'm excited about the proposal and the effects it will have on China's economy, including job creation and the continued spread of China's recovery.

Coal demand simply exploded in early 2009 -- doubling the share price of our play on China's astonishing economic growth and energy demand. We picked up this company at rock-bottom prices in expectation of the boom driven by China's stimulus package. But now, with China reopening idled coal mines, coal prices are likely to fall, curbing profits for the company and jeopardizing the rally that we've enjoyed so far.

Not much has changed for the better since I gave my 2009 economic outlook for Russia in January of this year. Though their stock market has had a nice run of it, their economy continues to suffer. In fact, even Russian officials don't expect their economy to fully recovery until perhaps 2012. For now, I expect Russia's recovery to be volatile and more difficult to predict -- so we'll continue to avoid the country and focus on more profitable opportunities elsewhere in Asia.

The media is clamoring about a potential trade war between the U.S. and China -- especially since the Group of 20 nations meet this week. But so far the tariff on tires and China threatening an investigation into chickens and auto parts, is fairly negligible. So I don't think investors need to worry overly much. However, it does emphasize why export-dependent companies are not our best investment bet in China right now, rather we'll continue to focus on companies taking advantage of the rising Chinese domestic consumption and infrastructure investment.

Though this state-owned enterprise remains the world's largest telecom provider, the company's growth has faltered in recent months. Primarily, this is because of an increasingly-saturated market and the rise of intense competition for wireless customers in China. As a result, I think it's time to take our gains and move on to more profitable opportunities in China.

Now, September is notorious for being a weak period for stocks -- but so far the global markets are holding up well. And China stocks are leading the way, along with the Shanghai A-Share market. What's helping China continue to lead the way? Well, they're regularly reporting economic data that points to a strengthening economy, confounding critics. The latest good news is an unexpected expansion in new lending and a faster-than-expected increased in industrial production.

After the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression wreaked havoc on the world, most economies are looking for change. And in many cases, citizens have taken it into their own hands, electing new governments that they expect to bring about this "change." Just last week, Japan's ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party, suffered defeated at the hands of the Democratic Party of Japan in the country's recent election. Whether this is a good move for the country is yet to be determined...

Now, I've been avoiding investments in India for some time. This is because the country can be baffling -- the numbers look good on paper, but when you visit, the country is an absolute mess. However, though I'm still cautious, I think it might be worth looking into India for some trading opportunities. As market conditions improve, there may be some exceptional profits to be had.

China has surpassed Germany as the world's largest exporter -- and it looks like exports in China may be again rising after nine months of decreases. However, while this news is nice, we've been profiting from China's domestic consumption -- the real driving force behind China's amazing economic recovery this year. And I expect the Chinese ability to spend will only grow in the future. There's still time to gain from China's economic emergence.

A crippling drought in China has left millions without water, as well as severely hurting crops and farmland. And the area and number of people affected are on the increase as the drought spreads due to blistering temperatures and no rain. At China Strategy we're investing in a company in the water treatment and purification industry that will literally save lives, as well as helping against future droughts in China.

China has been on a worldwide buying binge -- snapping up natural resources left and right. And one of my Asia Edge recommended companies just completed the largest foreign takeover bid that China has ever seen. That, coupled with the hot automotive market and rising demand for gasoline makes this company a sure -- and profitable -- bet.

I've been pounding the table about the bull market opportunities to be found in China's real estate market -- and I hope you've been listening. Real estate prices are soaring in major Chinese cities, and my readers at China Strategy and I have been taking advantage -- and one of my favorites just reported blowout earnings, which pushed the stock higher. I don't want you to miss out on the next leg up, because this one's poised to go higher, much higher. In fact, they're expecting 100% year-on-year growth next quarter!

The U.S. employment numbers are improving, but far too slowly. That's why the better investment opportunities are in China, where we can take advantage of the employment trend. Shares have already popped 70% in the seven weeks since I recommended this profitable opportunity! Don't miss out on the next leg up!

India is typically the first thing that comes to your mind when you think of IT outsourcing. But you might want to rethink -- China is seeing explosive growth in the outsourcing industry and I smell opportunity. Shares in my recommended company are already up 250% year-to-date! Don't miss out!

Dining out is huge in China -- which is why I recommended Yum! Brands to my China Strategy subscribers some time ago. However, it's now time to take profits due to increased competition and a dimming of YUM's prospects. Their last earnings report was still positive, but showed a definite slowing in growth. However, I still smell opportunity in China!

More cooperation and stronger bonds will define the relationship between the United States and China in the future. The talks this week in Washington D.C. have led to much agreement and an understanding that the world's economic woes are better fixed together. I think it's vital that both economies work hand-in-hand in solving the financial crisis -- and the U.S. couldn't do much better in picking a future partner as China is the only large economy still growing.

Emerging markets are simply exploding this year. The numbers are red-hot: the MSCI Emerging Markets Index just jumped to a new 10-month high on Monday. And, of course, it shouldn't be a surprise to my regular readers that China is driving much of the leap. The bold steps that China has taken to overcome the effects of the global financial crisis are definitely paying off. Funds from the $586 billion stimulus package and record-setting bank lending are flooding the markets with liquidity. You definitely don't want to miss out!

China is officially the first global economy to turnaround. The nation's gross domestic product grew 7.9% in the second quarter, accelerating from its slowest growth in almost a decade. China is now on track to surpass my 7% GDP projection for 2009, and China's economy is the only one of the world's 10 largest that is still expanding. And since the Chinese government isn't cutting back on spending anytime soon and China's economy will continue to grow going forward, Chinese stocks will likely rally throughout the rest of 2009.

The talks between Chinese steel mills and the world's second-largest mining company, Rio Tinto, are finally making some progress. China's steel mills had demanded a price cut of 45% but many are now accepting a temporary price cut of 33%. However, the negotiations have been overshadowed by recent events -- four Rio Tinto employees were detained in China on charges of stealing state secrets. The four are accused of bribing steel mill executives in order to gain an edge in the contract negotiations.

China is taking bold steps to overcome the global financial and economic crisis, which are not only spurring economic growth, but they're also creating jobs. Just this week the steel, automobile, finance and transportation industries announced their intent to hire more employees in response to revitalization plans. Real estate, hi-tech and retail are also increasing their hiring. This will all greatly benefit a company I recommended just three weeks ago that's already popped more than 28%!

Every time world leaders met recently they've started with a debate about whether the dollar will -- or should -- lose its dominance as the world's reserve currency. It's clear the "almighty dollar" is weakening. However, don't panic yet. The dollar isn't going anywhere immediately. But, China is making sure it has options for a future where the greenback no longer dominates -- recently allowed the first yuan cross-border transaction. Don't miss out as China continues its rise against the U.S. in the world markets.

The Chinese are taking steps to better their health care system with a recent update to the $124.4 billion medical reform plan. The plan aims to provide universal health care to the countries' 1.3 billion population by the year 2011. I expect businesses within the health care sector to receive a nice boost within the coming months, resulting in some incredible opportunities to be created for investors in China.

The World Bank's projection for the global economy, as you know, sent global stock markets spiraling lower earlier in the week. Many of these markets bounced back later in the week, including Japan. Despite the Japanese stock markets rebounding, I still believe that Japan is still suffering from a deep recession that will last through this year and into 2010 -- a fact that will likely weigh on the country's stock markets.

With most Asian stock markets gaining significant ground so far in 2009, it wasn't surprising that the region garnered much attention this week when Asian stocks sold off. Much of the decline can be attributed to falling commodities and lagging consumer confidence. But I don't think the recent drop is worth worrying over -- most Asian stock markets are still up significantly this year.

After falling nearly 80% from their peak in July 2008, crude oil prices have started to move higher. Currently, oil per barrel is trading around $70 -- something I've been projecting all year long. To reflect the jump in crude oil prices, China's National Development and Reform Commission lifted retail prices for gasoline and diesel on Monday. This move bodes well for Asia's leading oil refiner. As the number-one supplier of gasoline and other oil products to China, this state-owned enterprise will benefit nicely from elevated oil prices. In the past three months alone, the company's shares have popped nearly 60%.

With expendable income expanding nicely in recent years, more and more Chinese are taking vacations to some of the hottest tourist destinations in China and all of Asia. This likely includes visiting the terra cotta museum in Xian, touring the capital city of Beijing and gambling in Macau. And like many Americans, the Chinese are turning to the Internet to book their flights, hotels and rental cars. China's leading online travel services company has been the biggest beneficiary of this trend -- shares are up nearly 80% year to date.

North Korea has caught the world's attention in recent weeks with its nuclear device testing and short-range missile firing. While nations like the U.S., Japan and South Korea are working hard to suspend shipments to North Korea and cut financial relationships with the nation, China's action holds the biggest influence. That's because China is North Korea's biggest ally and largest trading partner. So when China announced that it was suspending government exchanges with North Korea this week, it caught everyone's attention.

China's National Development and Reform Commission lifted gasoline and diesel prices on Monday to reflect the jump in oil prices since the beginning of the year. Crude oil is now trading near $70 per barrel. The move higher and the boost to retail prices bodes well for this Chinese offshore driller, which is already up 50% year to date.

Earlier this week, we received more positive news out of China that reaffirmed my projection that the Chinese economy is bouncing back and on track for a full recovery in the second half of the year. China's manufacturing sector expanded for the third straight month, with a PMI reading over 50. And following this encouraging report, China's benchmark stock exchange in Shanghai added another 3%.

After the tumble that most real estate markets around the globe took, I know it's hard to believe that any of them are on the verge of a turnaround. But considering the Chinese economy and the influx of bank lending occurring there today, China's real estate market is on track for a turnaround. And there are two great ways to play this rebound. My two China Strategy recommendations -- a Chinese developer and a Chinese real estate services company -- are directly in line to profit from this trend are up nicely this year -- 182% and 73%, respectively. Learn what's fueling this rebound and how you can start profiting today.

Over the weekend, it was announced that India's Congress Party had won the country's political election with Manmohan Singh becoming the new Prime Minister. Indian's and investors alike cheered this recent development, pushing India's Sensex index up 17% in trading on last Monday. While this is a positive development for India, I remain hesitant that this equals brighter skies ahead for Asia's third-largest economy.

One of the hot topics in the technology sector this year is the U.S.'s switch from analog to digital transmission. What's interesting, though, is that other countries around the globe are also making this move. In fact, the Chinese government announced a mandate to broadcast all TV programs in digital format by 2010. This is creating an incredible investment opportunity in China's TV market.

The Chinese government continues to take advantage of the lower energy prices, creating deals to secure energy resources at low levels. These efforts were exemplified recently in the deals that Sinopec is working on with Brazil and Exxon Mobil. And these deals bode well for Sinopec's shares going forward.

With the U.S. stock markets rallying strongly since March and erasing their 2009 losses, many investors are wondering if we've finally seen a bottom. I'm not surprised considering that the U.S. S&P 500 has rallied 34% since March. But I'm not very optimistic concerning the U.S. stock markets, and I think we may see the lows of 2009 retested this fall.

India's stock exchange has taken great strides so far this year, rising around 23%. And many people have asked me if that means it's time to start investing in India again. But I still see a number of trends that are weighing heavily on India's economy and will likely hamper economic growth there in the months ahead.

When 2009 began, investors were unsure about how this year was going to shake out. The first months of this year were surely ones for the history books, in terms of economic happenings and stock market moves. So let's recap what happened in the first quarter of 2009, and discuss what we can expect in the second quarter of this year. In addition, I talk about the best region to invest your money.

After weeks of volatility and losses, it was nice to see stock markets gain some ground this week. The move up was due to the positivity surrounding the recent G20 meeting and President Obama's presence overseas.

While all eyes have been on the U.S. in recent weeks paying attention to how the economic superpower responds to the global financial crisis, another economic power is gaining ground -- China. In fact, a recent report states that China is set to become t he second-largest economy by 2010.

The Fed's recent plan to pump money into the economy pushed stock markets up last week, marking the biggest rally in weeks. But investors cannot get caught up in these sudden gains, and lose sight of the bigger picture. Read on for my market outlook.

While many investors are still shying away from putting their money to work in the current environment, I've been recommending that my Asia Edge subscribers pick up strategic trades in industries showing strength this year. One industry, in particular, that's caught my attention is technology. My latest recommendation is a Taiwan semiconductor manufacturer that's up 17% year to date.

After a tumultuous 2008, much of the world is looking forward to the start of the New Year. But many are unprepared for what 2009 may have in store for them, and they will likely miss out on some of the most profitable opportunities that the year has to offer. That's why I've written a special report to help you navigate the murky waters and prepare for a New Year of profits.

Last week, China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed a creation of a new currency to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's main reserve currency. Zhou said that it would create and control global liquidity. The idea of a global currency has come and gone in recent years in tandem with global economic woes, but will it actually happen this time? Read on to find out.

Last week, the Chinese expressed their concerns about the safety of U.S. Treasury securities. China holds many of these securities, and is worried that they may be negatively affected by the U.S.'s financial crisis. The U.S. responded with reassurance that the country that they are indeed safe. So what is in store for these securities and China's investment in them? Read on to find out.

Many investors -- myself included -- have high hopes for India's economy. The country has lots of useful resources, and its businesses are overflowing with once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunities. But unfortunately, this high potential is being overshadowed by the global economic crisis, as the country is being hit hard.

The U.S. government recently implemented a huge stimulus package to help support the U.S. economy. But investors are still worried that this stimulus may not be enough to prevent the U.S. from slipping into recession, which was shown in today's stock market losses. So as investors in a global economy dominated by the U.S., I recommend that we steer clear of this economic turmoil, and instead focus our investments on China.

While it's hard to predict what's going to happen in the global stock markets throughout the rest of 2009, there are some investors and advisors who put weight in the "January Barometer" theory. Basically, this theory implies that market action in January is an indicator of how the market will perform throughout the rest of the year. While it's only a theory, it's still worth considering.

It is no secret that 2009 will likely be tough for the global markets and economy. Many investors would rather turn their backs on investing than take a risk in this environment. So in this rough investment landscape, I have recommended that my subscribers invest in this hedge.

Since the implementation of China's $586 billion economic stimulus plan, there are many companies that are starting to benefit from its implementation. One of these companies is China's leading producer of aluminum and alumina, as the plan will give a huge boost to improve China's infrastructure. This company is set to grow this year, making it a solid investment for us.

Ever since the end of 2008, the relationship between Israel and Palestine has been strained. After Palestinian militants fired on Israel, Israel returned fire with air attacks on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip. As long as the conflict continues, it will likely weigh heavily on the region's economy and stock markets.

The history books were being written today as Barack Obama was welcomed the 44th President of the United States. But what kind of role will the new administration play in overcoming the global financial crisis and economic recession in the U.S.? Only time will tell... Still I have a few expecations for the new administration that I'd like to share with you today.

If you've read my commentary on India before, then you know that I've been avoiding investments in the country for awhile now. While India has posted robust economic growth in recent years, viable investments are hard to come by there. That's because Indian companies aren't closely regulated or well-ran, leaving them open to scandals like the current one at Satyam Computers.

Like much of the world, the economic picture is not very bright for Russia in 2009. The country is suffering from an economic slowdown, and may even slip into recession this year. What caused the Russian economy to take a turn for the worst after seven years of robust growth? A variety of things weighed heavily on the country this year including the drop in oil prices, the war with Georgia and its depreciating currency.

As a year that was already plagued with one of the worst economic and financial crisis of all time drew to a close, tensions rose in Asia. In the last month of 2008, a number of nations in Asia were victim to conflicts and terrorist attacks.

No kidding! The recent announcement that the U.S. has been in a recession all year shouldn't have come as a big surprise this week. In fact, I've been telling my Asia Edge and China Strategy subscribers just that for the better part of 2008. Still, the global markets didn't react positively to this news, and we saw another sell-off after last week's four-day rally.